Building Valuable Hyperstructures

Hyperstructures are a new type of public good – one which is truly public, and can’t be taken away.

They are built on blockchains, so they inherit blockchains’ properties, and then some.

Hyperstructures are protocols with the following attributes:

taken from Hyperstructures by jacob.eth

I am awed by ‘s Jacob’s articulation of these ideas; Hyperstructures is a masterpiece.

I have one caveat, and it’s about the biggest existential risk to crypto – lack of value capture.

Hyperstructure token value

Hyperstructures are only valuable when designed to capture value.

Almost none are.

Token prices are 99% speculation; their price floor, aka utility value – the price at which the market buys them up – is less than 1% of the price.

Many tokens have no price floor at all.

Most hyperstructures are valuable in the sense that they have utility, but they are not financially valuable – they lack ways to capture or accrue that value to a token.

High prices are temporary, fueled by speculation.

The UNI fee switch

Jacob says the right to turn on Uniswap’s fee switch gives Uniswap’s UNI value.

Not exactly.

If the fee switch is turned on, participants in the Uniswap protocol will leave.

https://twitter.com/EatSleepCrypto/status/1545499168105369602

To capture value, Uniswap need to make a v4 so good that it’s worth the fees.

Hyperstructure valuation

There are other reasons given for high prices of hyperstructure tokens:

  • Governance
  • Use of a token to pay fees
  • Protocol use
  • TVL

These features can be useful and necessary, but they still don’t capture value.

Governance tokens

Pure governance tokens are not valuable, for the reasons given about Uniswap above.

They fail to capture value, and the hyperstructures they govern are their own competition.

Fee tokens

Use of a token to pay fees within a protocol does not capture much value.

Fees are a small part of all value in a protocol.

Each token is used more than once – velocity – so all tokens together only capture an even smaller part of the total value in a protocol.

Protocol use

Just because a protocol is used does not mean its token will have a high price.

A token must be used in a protocol for it to capture value.

Supply and demand for the token must be aligned with protocol use.

Total Value Locked

Total value locked in a protocol, TVL does not merit a high price for the protocol token.

When TVL is not increasing demand for the token, there is no relationship between TVL and token value.

TVL does not capture value unless it is made to.

This is true for L1’s, including ETH.

Hyperstructure value capture

There are two basic ways for hyperstructures to capture value:

1. Charging fees and giving them to tokenholders

2. Requiring the native token as a medium of exchange within the protocol.

The first is a security, the second is a currency.

Charging fees

Charging fees to use a hyperstructure captures value.

Fees can be at a protocol level (SushiSwap), or on top of a protocol (OpenSea).

Note: it’s illegal to give token holders these fees in the US.

That said, hyperstructures are permissionless; this is not legal advice.

Equities vs currencies

Currencies and companies don’t capture value the same way.

Companies capture value by taking profits.

Currencies capture value through use as a medium of exchange.

Hyperstructures can capture value in either way, but the token and protocol must be designed to do so.

Conclusion

Building valuable hyperstructures is hard.

If you want to capture value, you need to include ways to do so from the beginning.

You can’t just do it later.

For this reason:

Excerpt from jacob.eth’s Hyperstructues

Crypto is the only industry where you can create a billion dollars of value from nothing and not see a penny.

Not because someone takes that value, but because you fail to monetize.

Without value capture, builders of hyperstructures will not be compensated.

If you need help with value capture or would like input on your project’s tokenomics, reach out to us for a free consult.

Value Capture and its misconceptions

Value capture describes the way a business, protocol, or cryptocurrency retains a percentage of its revenues.

Misconceptions about value capture abound.

There are two types of mental mistakes people make – biases, utilitarian and teleological.

Utilitarian bias

Peter Thiel summarizes the first in Zero to One:

“Your company could create a lot of value without becoming very valuable itself.”

Thiel compares returns between major airlines, and software companies.

Airlines operate on thin margins. Software companies have marginal cost of replication.

In 2012, airlines’ revenue was $160 billion. Google’s was $50 billion, but at a 21% profit margin, Google was over a hundred times more profitable than the airline industry.

Valuable protocols != valuable tokens

Lack of value capture isn’t unique to TradFi; in fact, it’s more common in free, open-source software.

As an outgrowth of FOSS, cryptocurrency (ironically) also suffers.

Many in crypto assume the tokens of a valuable protocol will necessarily be valuable. Most of the time, developers haven’t considered tokenomics, and there is no relationship.

Teleological bias

Teleological bias reverses causality.

It implies an imaginary force in an incomplete chain of dependencies.

“x is valuable because y depends on it,” where it isn’t a given that y will remain stable.

For example, “BTC must continue to go up because the Bitcoin network’s security depends on it.”

This type of rationalization is a red flag, but quite common.

Financial interest blinds people.

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” – Upton Sinclair

Labor Theory of Value

The Labor Theory of Value is another example of teleological bias – which describes the tendency to reverse causality to retrofit a set of beliefs.

Early Bitcoiners said Bitcoin derived value proportional to the electricity spent on it.

Things are valued for what they give, not what they take.

Electricity, required to mine BTC, is a driver of costs, not value.

Conclusion: Systemic Risk

These biases are a problem partly because their premises are true.

Cryptocurrencies need to be valuable to secure protocols.

In most cases, they’re not.

Thought is rarely given to what makes a token valuable. Consequently, protocols behave unexpectedly, collapsing and their tokens dropping 99% in bear markets.

The increasing interdependence of blockchains compounds this issue. The cryptocurrency ecosystem is rife with risk.

Thankfully, builders are beginning to notice these risks, and how to deal with them.

Cryptocurrency often likened to Jenga – one block away from complete collapse.

I see crypto as a pyramid.

We’re building one layer at a time. Sometimes we build too high, without laying the previous foundation. Those who build ahead fall from real heights.

But it doesn’t stop those building at the bottom.

Thankfully, people are starting to tune into this.

Each bull market, the cryptocurrency ecosystem builds another layer.

So far, the approach has been to let it settle, see what falls.

But there is a better way.

In the pyramid analogy, tokenomics are the concrete that hold everything together.

By intentional crafting of tokenomics, cryptocurrency protocols can be made to capture value, giving them the economic security needed for a strong foundation.

If you’d like to learn more about tokenomics and how to design valuable cryptocurrencies, check out Tokenomics 101.

Valuation Methods: Finding PQ

PQ in the equation of exchange represents the total value of all purchases made with a cryptocurrency.

There are two ways to find total purchases.

The first is through direct, on-chain observation. The second is to use orthogonal metrics as a proxy for on-chain data.

Estimating PQ

Estimating PQ through proxy metrics is useful where data is unclear.

For example, Monero, whose chain can’t be surveilled – is impossible to gather data from.

XMR transaction amounts are hidden, and transaction histories are unclear.

XMR is mainly used on the dark web – exactly like Bitcoin when it started.

If you know the volume of purchases on the dark web, and the percentage of dark web transactions using Monero, you have a large component of PQ for XMR.

Finding PQ On-chain

In transparent blockchains, data is easy to parse.

Most blockchains are transparent, so on-chain data can be used as inputs to the equation of exchange.

It’s easiest to do this for Ethereum-based tokens. Transaction data can be interpreted according to documentation for the smart contract, which makes it easy to identify which transactions are speculative and which are to be included as part of total purchases.

For example, you can look at a Chainlink (LINK) transaction and understand which tokens are being paid to data providers, and which are simply being sent between exchanges by arbitrage traders.

[LINK dashboard Dune Analytics]

Etherscan is a helpful site to find known addresses like exchange wallets. Dune Analytics is a visualization platform with crowdsourced insights.

Combining Methods

Transparent medium-of-exchange coins, especially those which are UTXO-based (Dash, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash) require a combination of on and off-chain analysis to find PQ for the equation of exchange.

It’s not always clear which transactions are self-sends, speculative purchases, or those sent to mixers for obfuscation, etc.

In this case, it’s helpful to identify known wallets and work from there.

Exchange addresses are publicly available, flagged on sites like Etherscan and Dune Analytics.

Source: Detecting Roles of Money Laundering in Bitcoin Mixing Transactions: A Goal Modeling and Mining Framework

On UTXO-based chains visualizations of transactions coming from mixers look different than visualizations of regular transactions, it just takes a little digging to identify these.

Going Further

Fundamental valuations of cryptocurrency are built on the equation of exchange – required reading for this article and others.

The equation of exchange is foundational to cryptocurrency valuation and the Tokenomics 101 article series.

We use these frameworks to design valuable tokens.

If you’re interested in building a token with fundamental value or valuing cryptocurrencies with a simple framework, reach out to us for a free consult.

Terra (LUNA) Tokenomic Post Mortem

Terra is a base-layer (L1) blockchain with native asset, LUNA, used primarily to collateralize the Terra ecosystem’s stablecoin, UST.

This week, the UST stablecoin lost its peg to the dollar, causing a “death spiral” that brought LUNA down from $90 to $0.

It was an unprecedented event whose implications are still being worked out in the crypto space.

Takes on the fundamental reason LUNA crashed range from “it was an inside job” to “20% yields are unsustainable,” with “LUNA itself was undercollateralized” and “LFG, the Terra treasury mismanaged funds” falling in between.

Shady dealings not withstanding, it was Terra’s tokenomics that caused its demise.

Examining LUNA’s fundamental value

All currencies get their value from use as a medium of exchange.

Cryptocurrencies are no exception.

In LUNA’s case, this value comes from use as collateral.

LUNA collateralizes UST, and LUNA holders make decisions about the protocol – governance.

Like all pure-governance tokens, LUNA doesn’t derive much value from its ability to make these changes.

Most of LUNA’s value came from the belief that it would be used as collateral for borrowing UST.

Terra: a short summary

Over the past two years, Terra ascended to the top of CoinMarketCap, fueled by “guaranteed” returns on Anchor Protocol.

In March, founder Do Kwon announced Terra would buy $10 billion in reserves, to fortify LUNA.

By May, ~$2.5 billion in BTC had been accumulated by LFG, the Terra treasury, but there were $14 billion UST outstanding, making Terra an easy target since the foundation couldn’t cover deposits.

Taking profits in stablecoins like USDT, DAI, and UST is popular way for traders keep money the ecosystem, and avoid centralized exchanges.

UST holders were attracted for this reason, but the fundamental driver of Terra’s growth was 20% yields on stablecoins deposited into Terra’s Anchor protocol.

On May 12, series of shorts on UST caused it to fall below $1.00.

Over the next few days, a bank run followed.

UST fluctuated wildly, causing Terra to mint new LUNA by design, and prompting LFG to sell its BTC reserves for LUNA, hoping to bring the UST peg back to $1.00.

It didn’t work; the crypto community had lost faith in UST, recognizing Anchor as a pyramid scheme.

After several days, facing a hopeless situation, Terra network validators paused the blockchain to prevent further attacks.

For blockchains, less than 100% uptime is a cardinal sin.

Lessons from Terra (LUNA)

LUNA’s use was rather limited. It was primarily used to create UST.

Irrespective of LUNA’s sizeable Total Addressable Market – a multiplier of demand for stablecoins – LUNA’s TAM is fickle.

Anchor’s 20% yield ultimately depended on LUNA’s continued growth.

A few takeaways:

  1. Cryptocurrencies get their value from use as a medium of exchange.
    1. The resilience of a cryptocurrency depends on the diversity of its economy. LUNA was used for a single purpose; when Anchor failed, LUNA failed.
  2. All value is belief.
    • Once the belief that LUNA could create UST was shaken, the price spiraled.
    • To Terra’s credit, it (still) has lots of supporters, and a vibrant community, but even this isn’t enough to fix bad tokenomics.
  3. Tokenomics must be sustainable. Without sustainable tokenomics, projects risk stagnation or collapse.

The bulk of the implications from Terra’s collapse are likely to play out over the coming weeks and years. In such an interconnected system, these effects are not immediately obvious – tokenomic design can be complex.

If you are creating a token and would like some help with tokenomics, feel free to reach out for a free consult.

Equation of Exchange: Simple Examples

The Equation of Exchange

The equation of exchange, MV = PQ is foundational to the Eat Sleep Crypto valuation framework. The following articles explain each component in detail:

Equation of Exchange Examples

Imagine an auto mechanic needs to purchase $10,000 worth of parts from China. The seller demands payment in CNY, which is traded on exchanges.

To complete the payment, there must be at least $10,000 worth of Chinese Yuan in circulation.

If there isn’t at least $10,000 worth of CNY in circulation, there are two ways to make it so:

1) CNY is printed by some means, and acquired by the buyer to complete his purchase.

Or,

2) The entire circulating supply is bought up on order books until the buyer’s CNY is worth $10,000.

The first method acts on the supply side, increasing the circulating supply.

The second is based on demand, where the currency’s price appreciates to meet demand for its use.

Valuing Cryptocurrencies With the Equation of Exchange

Our microeconomic example of the equation of exchange using CNY works the same at scale, with a couple more moving parts.

Since cryptocurrencies can’t be inflated at will, the buying up of cryptocurrencies and tokens on exchanges for actual use cases is how price discover occurs.

Let’s say Bitcoin is used to buy $100 billion worth of goods and services annually. We’ll imagine that 10 million BTC are in the circulating supply – they not lost or otherwise unavailable. And we’ll say that each bitcoin moves between 5 people per year, on average (historical velocity of the dollar).

So our velocity is 5.

So we have M = $100 billion (PQ)/ 5 (V) = $20 billion

Applied to cryptocurrencies, this fundamental value is a *price floor* – the minimum sustainable price of a cryptocurrency, absent speculation. Dividing $20 billion by 10 million BTC to get the price per unit gives us a price floor of $10,000 per Bitcoin.

In the Investor Series articles, we find price floors of various cryptocurrencies using models with adjustable assumptions.

Equation of Exchange: M, Monetary Base

The equation of exchange, MV = PQ is an algebraic equation used to solve for various components of a currency’s value.

It is typically reordered to solve for M by economists, who want find the necessary supply of a currency – the minimum monetary base – needed for commerce.

If more demand than currency exists, notes will trade above their face value.

Cryptocurrencies experience the same demand pressure, but don’t have this problem. Instead, their prices appreciate to meet demand for purchases.

Increasing demand pressure and decreasing circulating supply causes the price floor of a cryptocurrency to increase.

If a cryptocurrency’s price on exchanges is close to its price floor – the price below which it cannot sustainably trade – the traded price must also increase to meet demand for value to be transferred through it.

The Eat Sleep Crypto valuation framework uses the equation of exchange in this way to identify price floors and design tokens.

Why Market Cap Is A Bad Metric

Market cap, short for market capitalization is a misleading metric when valuing cryptocurrencies.

Market cap is borrowed from traditional finance’s equity valuation methods. Cryptocurrencies and tokens are valued using the equation of exchange.

Types of supply

The cryptocurrency space has started to recognize the inadequacy of “market cap” in valuing cryptocurrencies.

Popular metrics now distinguish between issued supply, and total supply at some later date – fully diluted market cap.

This is only a partial solution, since not even all coins which have been issued are still in circulation (e.g. Satoshi’s coins).

Circulating supply in the Eat Sleep Crypto valuation framework refers to only those coins which have moved in a time frame.

The time frame is arbitrary; it’s only important that the other components of the equation of exchange use the same one.

Why circulating supply is best

The most meaningful comparisons can only be made by looking at different sets of coins – i.e. coins with the same Cryptocurrency Valuation Methods; Determining Coin Age at different dates.

Looking at circulating supply allows more useful comparisons of velocity and supply for the same coin over time.

Valuation Methods: Identifying Circulating Supply

Circulating supply is the number of coins (cryptocurrencies, tokens) in circulation.

It can be defined different ways – the key is that it’s defined the same across components of the equation of exchange.

For example, if circulating supply means “coins which moved within the past year,” the velocity, monetary base, and total purchases should also reference those specific coins.

Generally, it’s helpful to define circulating supply to include coins with a coin age less than one year, and exclude coins on-exchange, staked, and burned.

Read Why Market Cap Is A Bad Metric to learn why other measurements of supply are misleading for valuing cryptocurrency with the equation of exchange.

What is the Equation of Exchange?

The equation of exchange is as old as economics itself.

First derived by John Stuart Mill, then referenced by Adam Smith, the equation of exchange has gained popularity more recently through Milton Friedman and other monetary theorists.

The equation of exchange is the foundation of cryptocurrency valuation in the ESC framework.

The Equation of Exchange, MV = PQ

The equation of exchange, MV = PQ is an algebraic equation used to solve for various components of a currency’s value.

It is typically used by economists to find the necessary supply of a currency – or, the minimum value of the monetary base needed for commerce.

When not enough fiat currency circulates, notes trade above their face value.

Cryptocurrencies experience the same demand pressure, but since cryptocurrency prices are floating, their prices appreciate to meet demand for purchases.

Increasing demand pressure and decreasing circulating supply causes a cryptocurrency’s price floor to increase.

If a cryptocurrency’s price on exchanges is close to its price floor – the price below which it cannot sustainably trade – the traded price must also increase to meet demand for value to be transferred through it.

The cryptocurrency valuation framework uses the equation of exchange to identify price floors and design tokens which hold their value.

Equation of Exchange articles: